Psych 51 - Midterm 2 - Judgment and Decision Making

annire's version from 2015-11-05 22:06

Section 1

Question Answer
studying how we make decisions and judge things illustrate biases we have in intuition
studying behavior is limiting because a lot of it is internal.
accuracy and inaccuracy for sensation and perceptionillusions. identifying faces.
perception is about how we process sensory info.
inaccuracy for memory is like the misinformation effect. prone to errors in certain situations.
overall, these inaccuracies give us a window into internal processing and how we think
three types of inaccuracy sensation and perception, memory and thinking

Section 2

Question Answer
sensory processes are reconstructions, which can lead to error. shows how we've evolved
we tend to lengthen up and down, and shorten left to right
automatic and quick indicates an adaptive purpose. for example facial recognition. we want to be quick and make judgements (even if they may not be accurate). quickly gauge, is it my mom? is this person approachable?
right fusiform face area is wherefacial processing occurs
prosopagnosiaobject recognition is intact, but cannot recognize a familiar face, even their own

Section 3

Question Answer
anchoring effectthe tendency to rely too heavily on an initial piece of inromation when making a judgement (spinning the wheel and answering a question)
in the marketplace when they hear a purported price, they think the value is higher. (Ex: used to be $100!! now only $50!!!) vs. this is $40
real estateasking price will affect determination of the value of teh house
confirmation biaswe tend to seek evidence that CONFIRMS our beliefs, and ignore evidence that contradicts. (ex: we need to find an example that FALSIFIES the rule)
confirmation bias on sciencewe have an idea about something works, and then we design experiments that SUPPORT those ideas. and not experiments that REJECT our ideas. (good idea to show that this is contradicting it, and it is WRONG)
hindsight biastendency to misremember our previous views to fit our CURRENT knowledge or beliefs. it's REWARDING to our SELF-IMAGE
hindsight bias ex9/11hindsight: warnings about the attacks seem crystal clear. but at the moment. no.
confirmation bias ex: full moon hospitalnot actually true. but probably remember this as so because whenever a hectic shift falls on a full moon, will note and remember that happening. no one remembers a full moon when nothing much happens
together, hindsight bias and confirmation bias feed a belief persistence. which is the tendency to hold on to a belief, even in the face of contradictory evidence.
ex of belief persistence: reading political essayspeople spend more time reading political essays that agree with their own views
television shows and internet sites have fuled belief persistence. polarized american politics more thane ver before. SO MANY options for political commentary, but so many of these options only present 1 type of view
loss aversewe are reluctant to do ANYTHING that may lead to loss
overall, we read into things base on our currently held views. it's hard to shift because we interpret things inside our own frame
kinds of biases in judgement and decision making:anchoring effect, hindsight bias and confirmation bias

Section 4

Question Answer
belief in the law of small numberslarge samples are more precise than small samples!! small samples yield extreme results
when we see a pattern we immediatelytry to explain it. generate a hypothesis. even if the data is random! or sample size!
if something looks random, it seemsmore likely??but each birth is independent of the next
gambler's fallacythe belief that the outcome of random events up to this point will affect the probability of future random events
ex: WWII bombingGermans were targeting populated areas!!! change analysis. see it's random. WE TEND TO SEE PATTERNS IN RANDOM EVENTS
so small numbers lead to extreme outcomes => see patterns => beg for explanation
explanations and causationcognitive iillusionswe have EXAGGERATED faith in fmall samples. and we pay more attention to the CONTENT than the reliabilty.

Section 5

Question Answer
small schools! seem to do the best! rated at the top!but small number of students lead to extreme results. the worst schools may ALSO be small schools.
but, found that the small schools actuallydidn't show improvement in college preparedness
Kahneman: causal explanations of chance events are inevitably wrong. we tend to categorize events in our world to explain events. we want to UNDERSTAND
cognitive heuristics are like"rules of thumb"
availability heuristicprocess of judging frequency by the ease with which the instances come to mind
two processes enhance judgement of frequencythe NUMBER of instances retreived, and the EASE with which they come to mind (latter influences our judgement of frequency when it's easy)
list 12 or 6 reasons why you're assertive! won't think you're assertive bc you couldn't get 12! vs 6. wow there are 6 reasons why i'm assertive!!!

Section 6

Question Answer
conjunction fallacywhen one judges the CONJUNCTION of 2 events to be more probable than one of the events. are you more likely to see a girl wearing a dress or someone wearing a dress
Gould: but she can't be just a bank teller!read the description!!!
the specificity of conjunction makes us think that it is more likely
representative heuristicjudgements made based on representativeness, like stereotypes. how well does this object represent the category?
less is more!fewer (intact) is better than more that are broken
10 that are valued. or 10 valued + 3 meh. the first is sold for more. the 3 DEVALUED the entire thing.

Section 7

Question Answer
2 systems exist for reasoning about things (kahneman)1. automatic. averages (good + broken = avg. value down) make quick decisions! 2. needs effort, add probabilities. "lazy". ) later to evolve
if we can do something automatically, we do it. there may be something costly aboutcalculating probabilities. pick the right one, 1 or 2, to help us survive
framing effecta bias that occurs when the way information is presented makes a significant difference in what people will decide
ex: 200 save or chances of not being saved. 400 die, or chances of survivingoverall, we are RELUCTANT to lose. we are willing to take a risk to avoid any deaths. but we won't risk to save more.
also applies for financial decisions. people hate losing money way more than they enjoy gaining money
we tend to be LOSS AVERSEwe do not like to risk losing. (Whether it be money or people's lives)
framing also affects our memory and judgement. "hit or smash" smash = speed higher. and presence of broken glass