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PBS 4 Probability Judgements

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jessgrimmel's version from 2017-05-25 19:18

Section

Question Answer
Teiger Murder mystery - 130%
Robinson and HastieImprove murder mystery using training
Lichenstein et alRare / common causes of death (avaliability heuristic)
Tversky and KahnemanFamous faces / gender (availability heuristic)
Tversky and KahnemanConjunction fallacy - novel word judgements
Tversky and KahnemanLawyer / engineer (base rate neglect - representativeness)
Kahneman and Tversky Personality sketch - representativeness correlated with prediction, base-rates did not
EddyInverse fallacy - diagnoses problem (base rate neglect)
Giegerenzer et al.Long run frequencies and not one off events
Giegerenzer and HoffrageRephrase diagnoses problem with frequencies and performance increases
Croson and Sundaliroulette - Gambler's fallacy
Matthews coin tosses - Gambler's fallacy
Gilovich Hot hand = representativeness, as doesn't seem to be a random mechanical process
Ayton and FisherAlternative framework for Gambler's fallacy and Hot hand - overgeneralisation of 'sampling without replacement' and 'positive recency effect'
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