#1 Sources of Information

octopirecipes's version from 2016-02-21 23:12


Question Answer
personal experienceno comparison group, full of confounds, mostly probabilistic.
intuition "common sense"cognitive shortcuts, focus only evidence we like best, unaware of our intuitive limitations.
authorityauthority figured falls into the same biases as personal experience, and authority.


Question Answer
good story heuristicif it sounds plausible we'll believe it.
availability heuristicwe judge the probability of an event by how easily we can think of examples
confirmation biaswe attend to evidence confirming our belief and ignore all others.
overconfidencewhen we think we know something we stop seeking additional data.
bias blind spotwe believe we're generally unbiased.


Question Answer
empirical researchbased on actual data, no intuition or personal experience.
objective researchUtilizes clearly defined methods that allow for replication
Systematic researchObservations are structured to directly evaluate claims


Question Answer
Theorya model of how the world operates that explains a wide range of phenomena (to be considered a theory, an explanation must be supported by lots of data.)
Hypothesisan idea about a particular phenomenon that follows directly from a theory (Focuses on an outcome expected if the theory is true, Must be accurately derived from the theory.)
Predictiona specific estimate of the results of a particular planned study (Translates a hypothesis into patterns of expected data.)
unfalsifiableuntestable or too vague. (making it difficultu to disconfirm)

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